Lumber Market Forecast
Tariffs Keep U.S. & Canadian Lumber Border-Bound
About Housing Affordability:
The evidence continues to pile on. Let’s just skip right over the sources and the comments. They are numerous and more frequent. 25% of all homes for sale have lowered prices. New and existing home...
Lumber Doing Its Seasonal 180°
Now 39 years into this lumber gig, there is one thing I have more confidence in than anything else. It is the foundation of my entire lumber career and reason for my success forecasting lumber market timing. The repeating lumber market cycle. Some of it sloshes around, yet, in spite of all the...
Lumber: Why So High?
On May 23, in its most active lumber futures day ever, the market traded $68 of volatility from $15 limit down to $30 limit up and back down $15 to unchanged. Why is that? Futures suspected what we Layman’s Lumber Guide members have known since mid-May. BC mills are not...
More Lumber Price Volatility Ahead
There are three fundamental lumber market components that will likely combine to make 2018 the most volatile year for prices on record.
LABOR: ICE gave notice last week that it intends to crack down on undocumented workers in the construction industry...on the jobsites. We already...
The Last Word:
The Last Word on Steel Tariffs
Buying a million pounds of U.S. steel for our company in Brazil taught me a good lesson on steel tariffs. While there were no apparent restrictions on imported steel, the Brazilian authorities used extraordinary means to prevent us from doing so, and we haven’t bought any since. I suspect...
If you enjoy watching any of the many home improvement shows where the hosts pick an older home to renovate, you notice they always talk about the “bones” of the house. In their opinion, this is one of the most important features of any potential renovation job.
What Could Go Wrong? vs. Nothing Could Go Wrong!
“What is the lumber market going to do?” is a very important question and the answer is very simple. It is going to rise and fall. Brilliant, right?
A better question might be, “How far will lumber prices rise and fall?” That answer requires an understanding of...
Change Your Pricing Formula for 2018 and Make More Net Profit
Let us assume that you are having problems with a truck’s transmission and it must be repaired or replaced. The local mechanic explains the hourly rate for service and that the cost of any parts needed to fix the transmission is extra. The hourly charge he is billing is to cover his...
September has Surged; Now the October Ovation
Perhaps the most important question in our lumber industry is: “What's next?”
We are in the heat of the September Surge. That will soon be coming to an end, but the clock doesn't stand still. Lord willing, the sun will rise tomorrow. So, the question is, “What's...
Lumber Buying is Fun, But It Is No Joke
Back in the day, when the lumber brokerage firm I worked for would not hesitate to take a 500 car position half a dozen times a year, I had this brilliant idea. I approached my four best customers, two wood preservers and two truss manufacturers, with a plan. Rather than profiting from my risk...