Lumber & Housing Market Forecast
Eurowood and SYP…the Future!
It’s times like the last couple of weeks in SPF-W, when buyers get taken by surprise, and they have one question for sellers. “How you gonna help me?”
Two weeks ago, I warned that SPF mills were about to spring surprise, imminent...
20% More Downside: Stocks and Lumber
In both the lumber and stock markets, there are more disruptions coming in 2019. The immediate influences of government shutdown, mass exodus from stocks, on-going trade war, volatile oil market, fight to suppress interest rates, President Trump’s legal issues, and global economic and...
A Fragile Housing Recovery Built on Credit
Many Americans are not overzealous about the moderate improvements to their lifestyle, income, and overall state of wellbeing during this economic recovery. That is being expressed by the stock market’s decline and increased recession rhetoric.
No in-depth statistical analysis is needed...
Was the 2018 Canadian Rail Car Shortage Real or Imagined?
There is a longer, quite fascinating tale to be pondered on the subject of this year’s historic western Canadian shipment backlog, however, for now let’s skip the conspiracy theories and stick to the confirmable facts.
The source for this article’s information is the...
The Last Word:
The Last Word on Spruce vs. Southern Pine
Now is the time to consider Spruce-Pine-Fir (SPF) as a substitute for Southern Pine (SP). As noted below, #2 SPF’s 19% higher bending value and only 10% lower compression value usually enables longer spans. Cull rates are generally lower with SPF, and it is lighter and easier to...
Lumber: Why So High?
On May 23, in its most active lumber futures day ever, the market traded $68 of volatility from $15 limit down to $30 limit up and back down $15 to unchanged. Why is that? Futures suspected what we Layman’s Lumber Guide members have known since mid-May. BC mills are not...
Trucking Shortage: Lumber’s Summer Nightmare
We lumber types have come to expect the unexpected. Hence, there is great value when we can identify, well in advance, what the next price manipulating phenomenon might be. 2018 has been a year of looking for an elusive lumber market top. Early in the year I went so far as to call 2018 a bear...
Hello 2018...The Year of the Bearish Lumber Market
This time last year, my message was that 2017 was going to be a year of extreme volatility. To start the year, 2x4 #2 SYP-E was trading for $460. The same product in Canadian SPF-W was $310. SYP was $150 over SPF. By November that relationship had flipped with SYP at $430 and SPF at $490. SYP...
September Surge at Historically High Prices
What exactly is the September Surge? It is an increase in lumber buying, reversing from summer inventory liquidation to inventory accumulation to prepare for autumn. Weather begins to improve after August’s sweltering heat and humidity-restricting jobsite...
The Last Word:
Straightening Crooked Southern Pine
Finally we are learning what the Canadians figured out: how to maximize the use of Southern Pine (SP) lumber. We are advancing truss equipment while they are transforming sawmills to enhance the quality of this once too-crooked product.
The Canadians are replaying the strategy that enabled...