Determining a genuine cause and effect relationship can be tricker than it seems. Some situations are obvious, but others may be only coincidental. How do we know for certain?
When Causation is Obvious
Thankfully, some cause and effect relationships are easy to prove. You fall down and break a bone – that’s a very clear outcome. It may not be a good outcome, but at least you know where you stand and that an impact caused the break.
When Correlation Comes Into Play
Taking the simple example of falling down, we can do a little more investigating. Do you have weaker bones than you should? Are you not getting enough calcium in your diet? As a person who still drinks milk at lunch and dinner (yes, we drink milk in my home), when I tripped off a curb and broke my foot a few years ago, I knew calcium was not my problem, but it might be an issue for other people. There may be underlying causes that are contributing factors, and we may or may not be fully aware of them.
When Coincidence Feels Like Correlation
For whatever reason, I can never keep the doorbell working. Honestly, in both Wisconsin and Oklahoma, I have tried replacing the doorbell myself and even hired experts, but the doorbell never stays working for very long. No one ever can ever give me a good reason why they stop working, and I have given up trying to fix the problem. Is there something about my electromagnetic field that disables doorbells? I doubt it, but the common denominator is my presence and the coincidence is strange nonetheless.
Cause and effect can be direct or obscure. Correlation can be striking but irrelevant. When we’re not certain, we may have to keep looking for proof before passing judgement on coincidences.
In my house, when opportunity comes knocking, I only know for certain that it can’t ring the bell!