Comparing 2017 to 1967 doesn’t explain much about our last 50 years. These bookends of our industry’s experience show GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation at nearly identically low levels. Then, seeing today’s housing starts 7% lower than yesteryear’s might portray a stagnant business. But, looking further at the growth of our great nation gives an opposite outlook and begs the question: why fewer housing starts with double the number of U.S. households, and 125 Million more people? We can’t deduce the meaning of these numbers without reflecting on the interim 48 years. Of course anyone with 10 years’ experience in the truss industry can provide the rationale, and the graph below reinforces their concern about the turbulence in our business.
Yet, with only 1,300,000 starts as of August 2018, nearly 200,000 below our 50-year average, our upside seems secure.