This isn’t the last word on housing, but only my perspective after nearly 50 years of observation.
If I could have chosen any time to have started in this business, I would choose the last five years. It certainly wouldn’t have been in the turbulent 1970s (when I started) or the ups and downs of the 1980s. While the 15 year run-up of 1991 to 2006 put my kids through school, the succeeding crash was no fun.
I’ve learned one thing from the past, and it is clearly illustrated above. There is no regularity to housing cycles; no repeatable pattern that foretells the future of the component industry. Yet we now seem to have reached some “reasonable” level of housing, not far off the bottom of all years prior to 2007. We are in a strong domestic industry with minimal threat from abroad. We use very basic raw materials (wood, steel, and human capital) that may be harder to get, but they’re not going away. We satisfy one of our most basic needs; a shelter in which to live and work. Our future is bright. No guarantees!