Lumber Market Forecast
Tariffs Keep U.S. & Canadian Lumber Border-Bound
About Housing Affordability:
The evidence continues to pile on. Let’s just skip right over the sources and the comments. They are numerous and more frequent. 25% of all homes for sale have lowered prices. New and existing home...
Lumber Doing Its Seasonal 180°
Now 39 years into this lumber gig, there is one thing I have more confidence in than anything else. It is the foundation of my entire lumber career and reason for my success forecasting lumber market timing. The repeating lumber market cycle. Some of it sloshes around, yet, in spite of all the...
Lumber: Why So High?
On May 23, in its most active lumber futures day ever, the market traded $68 of volatility from $15 limit down to $30 limit up and back down $15 to unchanged. Why is that? Futures suspected what we Layman’s Lumber Guide members have known since mid-May. BC mills are not...
Trucking Shortage: Lumber’s Summer Nightmare
We lumber types have come to expect the unexpected. Hence, there is great value when we can identify, well in advance, what the next price manipulating phenomenon might be. 2018 has been a year of looking for an elusive lumber market top. Early in the year I went so far as to call 2018 a bear...
More Lumber Price Volatility Ahead
There are three fundamental lumber market components that will likely combine to make 2018 the most volatile year for prices on record.
LABOR: ICE gave notice last week that it intends to crack down on undocumented workers in the construction industry...on the jobsites. We already...
If you enjoy watching any of the many home improvement shows where the hosts pick an older home to renovate, you notice they always talk about the “bones” of the house. In their opinion, this is one of the most important features of any potential renovation job.
Managing the Bear Market
4 Costly Bear Market Mistakes!
What could possibly be worse than missing a huge bullish market move? There are four critical bull market mistakes. Actually, they go both ways...bull and bear markets.
Failure to acknowledge that the trend/price direction is preparing to reverse. This...
IBS / NAHB 2018
Knowing that our future depends on builders is reason enough to attend their best exhibition, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) International Builders Show (IBS). Understanding the technology that they adopt, the changes impacting them, and the shape of their new products helps us...
What Could Go Wrong? vs. Nothing Could Go Wrong!
“What is the lumber market going to do?” is a very important question and the answer is very simple. It is going to rise and fall. Brilliant, right?
A better question might be, “How far will lumber prices rise and fall?” That answer requires an understanding of...
Hello 2018...The Year of the Bearish Lumber Market
This time last year, my message was that 2017 was going to be a year of extreme volatility. To start the year, 2x4 #2 SYP-E was trading for $460. The same product in Canadian SPF-W was $310. SYP was $150 over SPF. By November that relationship had flipped with SYP at $430 and SPF at $490. SYP...