Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: Lumber: “THE” Economic Leading Indicator

Matt Layman

Recession by definition: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy...

#14274 Cover image
May 2022
Issue #14274
Page 90
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: Housing Affordability Inflection Point

Matt Layman

Cooling ahead for CMs Zillow reports that the number of multigenerational family households has quadrupled since 1971. 18% of Americans now live in multigenerational housing and housing supply is at an all-time low. Families are moving back in with relatives due to increased housing...

#14273 Cover image
April 2022
Issue #14273
Page 90
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: Housing Momentum Rushing To Over Built

Matt Layman

There are multiple Overlooked Obvious housing conditions that scream “runaway supply of shelter” is already in process. First and foremost, let us differentiate between housing and shelter. Housing demand implies one dwelling for a household. A household is not a family...

#14272 Cover image
March 2022
Issue #14272
Page 104
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: February Rally 91% Probability

Matt Layman

“Chaotic”...the Perfect January Tag If there was ever any doubt as to what we should expect from January Chaos, 2022 is a textbook example. Traders (buyers and sellers) enter the month with new year expectations that either repeat or improve upon the previous year. These...

#14271 Cover image
February 2022
Issue #14271
Page 94
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: The Answers are in Housing “Completions”

Matt Layman

Another Recurring Phenomenon: Starts to Completion Ratios If ever I look down and see a penny on the ground, I always pick it up and, without fail, I always do the same thing next. That is scan the surrounding area for another penny. I have been blathering on about the spread between...

#14270 Cover image
January 2022
Issue #14270
Page 92
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: Softwood Framing Lumber Market Forecast

Matt Layman

Discount the Most Recent Past How should we process the cumulative life experiences that determine our next course of action? We might say, “That depends on the circumstance.” If I got mugged today for the first time in my life, it is likely I am going to be more aware of...

#13269 Cover image
December 2021
Issue #13269
Page 100
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: Where Did All the Lumber Go in October?

Matt Layman

I’m hearing two conversations. Mills wonder where all the wood is going and buyers wonder if there is going to be pull back to buy, particularly in the south. Granted those are not abundant conversations because most folks are sitting fat and sassy; perfectly comfortable. Will we get a...

#13268 Cover image
November 2021
Issue #13268
Page 104
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: Lumber Market Conditions and Strategies

Matt Layman

My rhetoric has been leaning towards the bearish side because buyers should not even be looking for lumber in October. The strategy of buying in late August to cover through early November was to avoid having to buy right now, the end of September. The lumber market should have been going up...

#13267 Cover image
October 2021
Issue #13267
Page 102
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: Most Valuable Lumber Lesson...EVER!

Matt Layman

That is a pretty bold statement coming from a guy who makes his living giving advice. After a lifetime of making mistakes, overlooking the obvious, and stumbling over attempts to be right, one might think all the big hurdles had been cleared. Not even close. In August, I learned perhaps the...

#13266 Cover image
September 2021
Issue #13266
Page 106
Matt Layman

Lumber Briefs: When Everyone Agrees: Don’t!

Matt Layman

The last couple of years have served up ample opportunities to be reminded of the futility of following the herd. The industry is still reeling from its hypnotic inventory accumulation at the insistence of home builders’ demands to not leave them under supplied. Some of our members took...

#13265 Cover image
August 2021
Issue #13265
Page 110
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