Recession by definition: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy...

Cooling ahead for CMs Zillow reports that the number of multigenerational family households has quadrupled since 1971. 18% of Americans now live in multigenerational housing and housing supply is at an all-time low. Families are moving back in with relatives due to increased housing...

There are multiple Overlooked Obvious housing conditions that scream “runaway supply of shelter” is already in process. First and foremost, let us differentiate between housing and shelter. Housing demand implies one dwelling for a household. A household is not a family...

“Chaotic”...the Perfect January Tag If there was ever any doubt as to what we should expect from January Chaos, 2022 is a textbook example. Traders (buyers and sellers) enter the month with new year expectations that either repeat or improve upon the previous year. These...

Another Recurring Phenomenon: Starts to Completion Ratios If ever I look down and see a penny on the ground, I always pick it up and, without fail, I always do the same thing next. That is scan the surrounding area for another penny. I have been blathering on about the spread between...

Discount the Most Recent Past How should we process the cumulative life experiences that determine our next course of action? We might say, “That depends on the circumstance.” If I got mugged today for the first time in my life, it is likely I am going to be more aware of...

I’m hearing two conversations. Mills wonder where all the wood is going and buyers wonder if there is going to be pull back to buy, particularly in the south. Granted those are not abundant conversations because most folks are sitting fat and sassy; perfectly comfortable. Will we get a...

My rhetoric has been leaning towards the bearish side because buyers should not even be looking for lumber in October. The strategy of buying in late August to cover through early November was to avoid having to buy right now, the end of September. The lumber market should have been going up...

That is a pretty bold statement coming from a guy who makes his living giving advice. After a lifetime of making mistakes, overlooking the obvious, and stumbling over attempts to be right, one might think all the big hurdles had been cleared. Not even close. In August, I learned perhaps the...

The last couple of years have served up ample opportunities to be reminded of the futility of following the herd. The industry is still reeling from its hypnotic inventory accumulation at the insistence of home builders’ demands to not leave them under supplied. Some of our members took...