This time last year, my message was that 2017 was going to be a year of extreme volatility. To start the year, 2x4 #2 SYP-E was trading for $460. The same product in Canadian SPF-W was $310. SYP was $150 over SPF. By November that relationship had flipped with SYP at $430 and SPF at $490. SYP...

We’ve heard the old adage, “This isn’t your father’s business anymore,” implying that things have changed since the “old days.” Well, things are going to have to change in the housing industry if we ever intend to get out of the corner of this room we...

The housing industry has been begging for workers going on a decade now. The American citizen work force is not answering the call. Consequently, housing construction has become completely dependent on undocumented workers. Meanwhile, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics technology are...

Perhaps the most important question in our lumber industry is: “What's next?” We are in the heat of the September Surge. That will soon be coming to an end, but the clock doesn't stand still. Lord willing, the sun will rise tomorrow. So, the question is, “What's...

September Surge...Normal What exactly is the September Surge? It is an increase in lumber buying, reversing from summer inventory liquidation to inventory accumulation to prepare for autumn. Weather begins to improve after August’s sweltering heat and humidity-restricting jobsite...

Back in the day, when the lumber brokerage firm I worked for would not hesitate to take a 500 car position half a dozen times a year, I had this brilliant idea. I approached my four best customers, two wood preservers and two truss manufacturers, with a plan. Rather than profiting from my risk...

Housing Inventory Looking Bullish Seven years later, the Great Recession now a memory, and as many years of construction growth behind us, the US housing situation is “critical.” We have added fewer new single family homes over the last decade than any of the previous five...

A fellow lumberman asked me to describe my ideal style of inventory management, or buying strategies. So, here it is. The best way to describe it is “elasticity.” Imagine the lumber market like the waves and tides of the sea. The tide is predictable...it ebbs and flows with the...

Preliminary CVD announced at 19.88% The pieces are falling into place. Department of Commerce has issued its preliminary countervailing duty on Canadian softwood lumber exports destined for the U.S. The rate of 19.88% is lower than the anticipated 30%. In addition, the four largest producers...

For a few months now, I have detected an uneasiness among lumber buyers. Near term expectations are bullish, however, there is an underlying sense of caution. Something is just not quite right in the housing sector. I believe I know what it is. Winds of Change Several years ago, when...