Are you feeling like we are in a great big room, pitch dark and no one can find the light switch? Well, let’s try to find one. First off, everyone knows how we got here, right? You know it’s not COVID, or the economy, or housing starts, or DIY, or interest rates, or the stock market....

Just like the lumber market, housing has benefitted from the unfortunate situation of the COVID-19 pandemic. One must wonder why? The answer is simple if we just listen to the narrative provided by builders and the usually lopsided media. Folks are fleeing to the suburbs. The pandemic has...

Without exception, in every conversation I have had regarding the pandemic’s positive impact on the lumber market, not a single person thought this outcome was possible. On my part, I see that as a failure. My job is to detect the unexpected. When I do not, that creates the 1.4 out of...

Seems like every week I get more contacts regarding urgent buying strategies. I want to share two of them with you today. One was a contractor yard, preparing to requote a $3 million multi-family framing package. The member was advised by the contractor that his price was roughly 10% high,...

LLG Crystal Ball Says Speedy Recovery I do not forecast the lumber market, rather how and when folks who buy, sell, and produce lumber will act or react. As for the economy and its recovery from this pandemic disruption, I only need to remember and expect one thing. Economies are consumer...

March 29, 2020 We are just days away from the sharpest lumber market price reversal ever experienced. It began last week with unreasonable mill panic selling in an attempt to secure short-term operational cash and a $50 drop. Next week and the following week, there will government mandated...

The words “panic attack” in our social sphere imply being attacked by panic. It can be debilitating. Put in another context, panic can lead to the action of attacking, typically defensively. Being attacked by panic and attacking in response to panic are positions of weakness that...

In the day of a CM’s and framer’s life, lumber buying is considered the most enjoyable and easiest task to perform. Buying lumber is a huge ego booster. By your own admission, lumber is 40–50% of the cost of producing the finished product. I find it simply stunning how very...

In our lumber market, when presented with a disruptive opportunity that appears to create a supply shortage or demand surge, buyers increase inventory on the expectation of higher prices; then, once we realize our over-zealous preparation, we liquidate those excessive positions, crashing prices....

We have six weeks left in the 2019 season with three major holidays inside that window. At a minimum, we will lose one week of jobsite productivity. Buyers are measuring needs against inventory on the ground as well as bought ahead. Many states have year-end inventory taxes and historically...