Through the Rear View Of all the lumber folk I know, I am the self-proclaimed King of checkers of rear view mirrors. I use the accuracy of frequency of past repeating patterns to give me confidence in making forecasts for the future. The FDP’s have been fine tuned year over year for 30...

Minor & Major FDPs Forecasted Decision Points, FDPs, will be my legacy. These markers of when the price of lumber will rise and fall are misunderstood by at least 90% of our lumber industry. The reason is the same as why I do not understand what holds the universe together. I am...

Build-To-Rent: Overlooked Obvious Not to be sacrilegious, but things in the lumber market are feeling apocalyptic. My primary concerns about the lumber and OSB market right now are two-fold. One, blatant disregard and unnatural comfort with prices. One of our members asked if he should...

Panels are the quandary, rather resins and glue. Widespread announcements of further supply disruptions and declarations of Force Majeure are crippling OSB flooring, siding, and roofing panels. I must step in right here to call B.S. Force majeure is a common clause in contracts which...

Looking Around the Corner LEST WE NOT FORGET... the current lumber market condition is the by-product of a major disruption, not a lasting trend. The disruption consists of the following. Accelerated millennial transition from urban to suburban areas. This has created another...

COVID’s 2021 Reverse Impact Let’s see if we can get this one right. A member recently requested that I forecast when the misses were going to happen. Sounds difficult, but not impossible. COVID 2020 was a once in a lifetime paradigm shift in our learning curve. To date, I have...

America’s Achilles Heel I want to drift off topic for a bit. Last week we were advised that the U.S. was under a massive cyber attack. As of today, Sunday December 20, the attack is on-going, there is no determination of who is responsible, how deep the attack has penetrated, how to...

COVID Shipment Delays WILL RISE The global pandemic surge is further exacerbating shipment schedules, lengthening many commodity and specialty items that are weeks behind already. Some truckloads of basic commodity Canadian lumber are just now catching up on two-month delays despite prices...

2020 Hindsight 2020 hindsight. Deduce deeper. Look farther than the end of my nose and keep asking, “What’s next?” I didn’t do that at the beginning of the pandemic. I failed to consider how men specifically would respond to the lockdown. I saw hangout at home, catch...

When flipping around in trading ranges in the $300s, planning for the coming year had some sort of definable “worst case scenario” contingency plan. I’m just curious. How do you plan for next year, staring down the barrel of all-time high lumber prices and short supply? That...