What has changed? In my early childhood, you could ride around town on a Sunday morning and notice and obvious quietness. Certainly not everyone was preparing for church, but the overwhelming majority of families were tidying up, putting on their Sunday-go-to-meeting attire, and heading out together for weekly worship service. During the hours of 9-12 AM there were very few cars on the road. No stores were open. You could not buy gas, groceries, clothes, auto supplies, or even a bag of ice until after church. Folks were not out jogging, walking babies or dogs. The baseball and soccer fields were vacant. No restaurants served breakfast or brunch.
The quietness around town was an unspoken reverent silence. Now its gone. What has changed? Where did that reverent quietness go? Sunday mornings have become a Saturday morning extension. Streets are busy, coffee shops and restaurants are bustling, Wal-Mart is packed, stores are open for business, kids on bikes are buzzing around the neighborhood. It's not a bad thing. It's a happy sound...relaxed mood and environment. It's just different. I wonder though...is Sunday morning still family time? Are we making that necessary deposit into the family unit. What better time and get our mind, body and spirit ready for the work week.
Family time...hold on to it. Lumber can wait.
Housing in Turmoil
We in the lumber business put a great deal of emphasis on the housing market, particularly new home construction. Not that new homes are the only driver in the consideration of lumber demand, however it is a benchmark monthly statistic. Analysts tend to draw conclusions from most current data.
August new home sales declined by more than 7%. Analysts were quick to wave the caution flag. I suggest a less hasty retreat until a trend can be seen...at least three months. June's seasonally adjusted sales pace was 582,000 at a median price of $320,000. [Higher prices, higher sales.] In July, new home sales rose 13% with median sales price falling $27,000 (13%). [Lower prices, higher sales.] August’s sales declined 7% despite median sales price also declining an additional $9,000. [Lower prices, lower sales.] From June through August, new home sales prices have declined $36,700...11% with sales rising and falling. Housing is in turmoil. There is no consistency between price and sales...at least in the data presented from the U.S. Census Bureau.
I'll leave it with this. As long as mortgage rates remain low, under 4%, and difficult to qualify for, housing will continue to struggle. Easing of credit requirements will lead to more sales, more starts, higher interest rates and a stronger housing recovery.
Looking Forward...Matt Layman, Publisher