We have six weeks left in the 2019 season with three major holidays inside that window. At a minimum, we will lose one week of jobsite productivity. Buyers are measuring needs against inventory on the ground as well as bought ahead. Many states have year-end inventory taxes and historically reduce stocks over the next six weeks.
At the same time, producers’ log decks are leaned for year-end tepid sales. This balances supply and demand.
Price weakness is an indication of buyers’ inventory reduction, which sets up a new year replenishment buy-in.
The remainder of the year will be littered with speculation about trade impacts, housing expectations for 2020, and supply/demand relationships.
I expect prices for the remainder of the year to be in a sideways chop. SPF: November will finish on a weaker tone than it began. The next two weeks will be a better buying opportunity than December. Dry Fir: Look for a one week delayed shadowing of SPF. SYP: Just-in-time trucks will hold this one up.
Canadian SPF will lead the year-end up turn given its three week delivery time to the south. Mid December shipments will arrive after year end...inventory tax-free. The last two weeks of December will begin to firm in other species.
Looking Forward...ML
A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Layman’s Lumber Guide, the weekly forecasts and buying advisories that help component manufacturers save money on lumber purchases every day. You can reach Matt at 336-516-6684 or Matt@laymansguide.info