4 Costly Bear Market Mistakes!
What could possibly be worse than missing a huge bullish market move? There are four critical bull market mistakes. Actually, they go both ways...bull and bear markets.
- Failure to acknowledge that the trend/price direction is preparing to reverse. This prohibits an early transition from delayed to rapid buying strategies.
- Failure to acknowledge that the trend has already reversed. This further delays accumulating a preemptive inventory position. Money left on the table.
- Chasing the established new trend. This puts the buyer at a competitive price disadvantage.
- Prematurely calling it over when it is not. This creates two wounds. First is the weakening of inventory positions too early. Second, it results in taking orders too cheaply. Liquidating too soon at the top results in selling too cheaply too early and paying too much to fill in near the top. Conversely, being late at the bottom results in selling too low for too long then paying too much, too far off the bottom.
The most costly move I made as a lumber trader was calling reversals too early. The most painful was always prematurely selling against a rising trend. Timing is everything. Anticipate and act.
The single most important thing to remember in any market is everyone ALWAYS talks their position. Right now, late February, no one wants the market to top, least of all brokers who are over bought. Consider your suppliers’ investments when listening to their market opinions.
$600 2x4’s are Here, But Not For Long
You may recall that, at the end of 2017, I was forecasting $600 2x4’s FOB mill. The January article headline was, “Hello 2018...The Year of the Bearish Lumber Market.” Did you think to yourself, “Is this guy deranged?” $600 2x4’s in a bear market?
$600 2x4’s are a product of the bull market that will end in March 2018. Then the 2018 Bear Market will begin. If you think this was a bull market for the record books, hold onto your chair. The coming bear market will be nothing short of lumber Armageddon in a shot glass.
Here is how it will unfold. The $450–500 portion of this market was created by inventory accumulation...preparing for spring in January. The $500–600 (and running) portionwas/is (depending on when in March you read this) created by panic buying in response to weather related shipment delays and speculative panic buying.
In March, those shipment issues will be significantly reduced by improving weather, more equipment thrown at the problem, and less demand from over bought customers. The entire business community, not just component plants, have been scrambling to build inventory after the tax reform.Now the proverbial pipeline is over loaded. March will be great for jobsite demand/delivery, however, it will drastically slower on the orders-to-the-sawmill side. Mills today are selling shipment, not order file. They are not selling weekly production, rather quoting 3-week shipment. Order files willbe completely gone by mid-March and the Big Bad Bear market looming. [This was written on February 22.]
Looking Forward ...ml
A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Layman's Lumber Guide, the weekly forecasts and buying advisories that help component manufacturers save money on lumber purchases every day. You can reach Matt at 336-516-6684 or matt@laymansguide.info.