LLG Crystal Ball Says Speedy Recovery I do not forecast the lumber market, rather how and when folks who buy, sell, and produce lumber will act or react. As for the economy and its recovery from this pandemic disruption, I only need to remember and expect one thing. Economies are consumer...

Whenever a site builder asks me why they should go modular, they are really asking me how they can make more money going modular. Some of them are long time site builders that have looked at converting to modular construction and just can’t bring themselves to pull the trigger. It’s...

March 29, 2020 We are just days away from the sharpest lumber market price reversal ever experienced. It began last week with unreasonable mill panic selling in an attempt to secure short-term operational cash and a $50 drop. Next week and the following week, there will government mandated...

The words “panic attack” in our social sphere imply being attacked by panic. It can be debilitating. Put in another context, panic can lead to the action of attacking, typically defensively. Being attacked by panic and attacking in response to panic are positions of weakness that...

In the day of a CM’s and framer’s life, lumber buying is considered the most enjoyable and easiest task to perform. Buying lumber is a huge ego booster. By your own admission, lumber is 40–50% of the cost of producing the finished product. I find it simply stunning how very...

In our lumber market, when presented with a disruptive opportunity that appears to create a supply shortage or demand surge, buyers increase inventory on the expectation of higher prices; then, once we realize our over-zealous preparation, we liquidate those excessive positions, crashing prices....

Our lumber market is notorious for over and under producing its products. The relationship between supply and demand is constantly in flux. When producers make decisions to increase supply, it is in response to a relatively long term period of increased prices where there is the perception of a...

To say I was surprised that almost 80% of all small independent home builders, both site and offsite/modular, build less than 4 homes a year is an understatement. That means that only 20% of all small builders in the US build more than 4. Who knew! If your business falls into the 80%,...

Housing is Over Built; Lumber is the Honey Hole Most of the time, the daily news and world events do not have a significant impact on how we buy and sell lumber. This recent stuff is different. It’s scary. All the trade and economic balls are in the air, and politically the U.S. is...

Most, if not all, are now caught up in the summer building season to make serious money for their component divisions. However, far too many companies are allowing tens of thousands of dollars to be lost because of commonly accepted bad practices. Practices such as using non-precise labor...