The words “panic attack” in our social sphere imply being attacked by panic. It can be debilitating. Put in another context, panic can lead to the action of attacking, typically defensively. Being attacked by panic and attacking in response to panic are positions of weakness that result in COSTLY decisions.
In our lumber market, we are always on the alert for anything that might expose us to panic or weakness.
Soldiers and pilots refer to this as Situational Awareness (SA). Our LLG members have Forecasted Turning Points (FTP) for their SA.
Our LLG’s FTPs are really quite remarkable. They predict when prices have a high probability of reversing direction...without knowing the reasons why.
This week #8 is one of our FTPs. As we reach the end of the week, upward momentum still looks strong, but I believe the balloon is over inflated.
We have seen it before and we’ll see it again. A few late-comers to the party, all jacked up and excited, throw another log on the fire, but it’s the last log, and soon it burns out. Prices will peak by the end of week #9, February 28.
One year ago, LLG forecasted that, at this week #8, whatever would be happening in the world, mill order files would peak, our lumber market would lose upward momentum, and prices would soften over the next several weeks.
I am submitting this article to The Advertiser on February 21, Friday of week #8, and today prices are up strong. Our LLG members had early warning and have built inventory well ahead of time to avoid purchasing during weeks #8, 9, and 10. In another 10 days, non-members will see what I’m writing here today. This is a real-time market forecast, that unfortunately will be delayed for you if you’re only reading this now.
I don’t know where prices will be the second week of March, but I believe with 86% certainty they will be lower. Our LLG members will be getting prepared to buy again in late March.
Our FTPs are our secret weapon to defend against and avoid panic attacks and costly panic reactions and to beat the lumber market.
The point is, when it comes to our lumber market, you have options. I would like to show you an alternative, with a 2-month free trial. See what has happened since this was written at week #8. You have everything to gain. Just ask.
Looking Forward...ML
A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Layman’s Lumber Guide, the weekly forecasts and buying advisories that help component manufacturers save money on lumber purchases every day. You can reach Matt at 336-516-6684 or Matt@laymansguide.info.