Lumber Briefs: Housing’s Dilemma...No More Capacity Matt Layman More housing data is rolling in and it is not looking good...but it is 30 days old. Therefore, I am looking for 2-month trends. Existing Home Sales declined on rising prices, expanding inventory to 4.5 months...about average...not a shortage. New Home Sales increased as did prices,... Read More August 2019 Issue #11241 Page 84
What I Like About Sum+It Todd Drummond It is time to forget about using a truss design program, price book, or square-foot multiplier when estimating roof and floor truss projects. For many decades, truss companies have been looking for ways to dramatically improve their design team’s capacity, but every effort has fallen... Read More July 2019 Issue #11240 Page 41
Lumber Briefs: The Repeating Lumber Market Cycle Matt Layman It is my belief that the lumber market trades in a repeating, predictable pattern. That pattern is created by the interaction between production and how the supply chain lumber dealers, component manufacturers, wood preservers, and wholesale distributors collectively prepare for seasonal... Read More April 2019 Issue #11237 Page 78
Lumber Briefs: Building a Bullish Lumber Base for Rising Housing Starts Matt Layman In both the lumber and stock markets, there are more disruptions coming in 2019. The immediate influences of government shutdown, mass exodus from stocks, on-going trade war, volatile oil market, fight to suppress interest rates, President Trump’s legal issues, and global economic and... Read More February 2019 Issue #11235 Page 84
Lumber Briefs: 20% More Downside: Stocks and Lumber Matt Layman In both the lumber and stock markets, there are more disruptions coming in 2019. The immediate influences of government shutdown, mass exodus from stocks, on-going trade war, volatile oil market, fight to suppress interest rates, President Trump’s legal issues, and global economic and... Read More January 2019 Issue #11234 Page 82
Lumber Briefs: A Fragile Housing Recovery Built on Credit Matt Layman Many Americans are not overzealous about the moderate improvements to their lifestyle, income, and overall state of wellbeing during this economic recovery. That is being expressed by the stock market’s decline and increased recession rhetoric. No in-depth statistical analysis is needed... Read More November 2018 Issue #10232 Page 78
Lumber Briefs: Lumber Market Forecast Matt Layman Tariffs Keep U.S. & Canadian Lumber Border-Bound About Housing Affordability: The evidence continues to pile on. Let’s just skip right over the sources and the comments. They are numerous and more frequent. 25% of all homes for sale have lowered prices. New and existing home... Read More October 2018 Issue #10231 Page 96
Lumber Briefs: Lumber Doing Its Seasonal 180° Matt Layman Now 39 years into this lumber gig, there is one thing I have more confidence in than anything else. It is the foundation of my entire lumber career and reason for my success forecasting lumber market timing. The repeating lumber market cycle. Some of it sloshes around, yet, in spite of all the... Read More July 2018 Issue #10228 Page 81
Lumber Briefs: Lumber: Why So High? Matt Layman Rationing On May 23, in its most active lumber futures day ever, the market traded $68 of volatility from $15 limit down to $30 limit up and back down $15 to unchanged. Why is that? Futures suspected what we Layman’s Lumber Guide members have known since mid-May. BC mills are not... Read More June 2018 Issue #10227 Page 83
Lumber Briefs: More Lumber Price Volatility Ahead Matt Layman There are three fundamental lumber market components that will likely combine to make 2018 the most volatile year for prices on record. LABOR: ICE gave notice last week that it intends to crack down on undocumented workers in the construction industry...on the jobsites. We already... Read More April 2018 Issue #10225 Page 83