A couple of weeks ago Thom McAnally, publisher of Component Advertiser, asked if I would write a summary of how following Layman's Lumber Guide Forecasts helped/ or could have helped you in 2015. My first inclination was to create the graph below to determine that 37 of 52 weeks, our lumber market moved as forecasted...in sync with the Forecasted Decision Points trend...71% of the time. That forecast is projected weekly...one year in advance. Not too shabby.
Then it occurred to me that this did not answer Thom's question. "How did, or could, Layman's Guide forecasts help you?"
When I first began publishing a lumber market analysis back in 1985, my focus was on when buyers, even producers, should accumulate or liquidate excessive inventory to take advantage of the major up or down trends. As the years passed, taking those risky positions has become less palatable for lumber buyers. Inventory turns have become more important. Therefore, my suggested strategies have evolved to include long term, as well as timely, weekly recommendations.
The graph below shows where the long term forecasts hit and where they missed in 2015. What it does not illustrate is how "you", specifically, can benefit from Layman's Lumber Guide on a weekly basis.
Regardless of the long term forecasts, the weekly strategies hone in on whether you should buy early in the coming week in rising markets, or late in the coming week in falling markets.
Why is that so important? On weeks that prices change, that average change is $9 per thousand board feet...either up or down. That is over $200 per truckload to be made or saved. How many trucks of lumber did you buy in 2015? That is how Layman's Lumber Guide can, and will, help you.
2016 will be an exciting year for housing and softwood framing lumber. Production is under control. Mortgage rates are creeping higher. Housing is gaining upward momentum.
Not only is Layman's Guide your only weekly lumber market forecast, it is your best. There is no other weekly and long term lumber market forecast that projects when prices will change direction, rise and fall, and accelerate momentum. The weekly buying strategies will help you keep your inventory turns and take advantage of price volatility.
Let's talk.