I am not talking about stocks, bonds, markets, or even finance. Speaking from experience as a recruiter for over 27 years, I see signs that 2020 is probably going to be OK as far as the building components manufacturing job market goes. My employers are saying they don’t see growth like in the past few years but see things as flat and holding steady at 2019 numbers. Still, employers (even new employers) are already placing job orders and adding management positions that indicate expansion or upgraded capacity at existing facilities. We usually won’t see this level of activity until mid-April when the flood gates open and everyone needs people. Over the past few years that activity is coming earlier and earlier, now starting in late December. As far as my enthusiasm for the component manufacturing industry job market holding steady, I am cautiously optimistic, at least for another year.
I can’t tell you when the next recession or economic correction is going to happen, but looking back to 2007 I now see things that should have been red flags. The markets back then were full steam ahead. Home building was still the juggernaut driving the economy and component manufacturing. New plants, new machinery, multiple shifts, and expansion were the norm. The sky was the limit all courtesy of easy money from exuberant lenders and machinery suppliers. Designer compensation went through the roof. Above average designers could change jobs and make $10,000 more per year. Any designer who was competent and willing to relocate got multiple offers. Then the door slammed shut in late 2007.
The economy marched on for another year, but then the housing industry started to falter, it flattened, then crashed. In the component industry, layoffs, pay cuts, plant closures and companies going bankrupt due to heavy debt from expansion and new equipment were common news headlines. As a result of plant closures and repossessions, used equipment inventory exploded but didn’t sell like before. I saw that as an opportunity to do something that had been on my mind for a few years and started The Advertiser.
Fast forward to 2020. The Great Recession is behind us or at least we hope it is. Yet, some companies are seeing a flat sales curve and compensation rates have leveled out. Top rates have declined and Truss Designers must have amazing skills to get more than $32 an hour. Last year rates hit $38 and even $40 an hour for the best performers. Still, new activity this early is making me think it could be regional like in the past. Not a sign of national slowing, just markets and regions reacting to demand like before 2007. We can only hope. Still, just as 2007 hiring was the canary in the mine shaft, I will be watching to see if similar signs emerge and will be singing an alarm, like a canary, when they do…