In both the lumber and stock markets, there are more disruptions coming in 2019. The immediate influences of government shutdown, mass exodus from stocks, on-going trade war, volatile oil market, fight to suppress interest rates, President Trump’s legal issues, and global economic and...

As the end of the year approaches, we often find ourselves thinking about what we’ve accomplished in the preceding months, which tasks we feel are incomplete, and how we’ve learned a few more lessons the hard way. Things never seem to turn out the way we’ve expected, but life...

If you are a Boomer, Next Gen, Gen Z, Millennial, or Green Martian, you have been effected by the Affordable Care Act, AKA Obamacare. The Affordable Care Act added the employer shared responsibility provisions under section 4980H of the Internal Revenue Code. (IRS) When the affordable...

2018 is a year for the record books. All time price highs followed by all time largest price drop in shortest time. One very important lesson learned or reinforced was how significantly supply disruptions can influence price movement. The variable is the set up. Specifically, the state of...

Many Americans are not overzealous about the moderate improvements to their lifestyle, income, and overall state of wellbeing during this economic recovery. That is being expressed by the stock market’s decline and increased recession rhetoric. No in-depth statistical analysis is needed...

Tariffs Keep U.S. & Canadian Lumber Border-Bound About Housing Affordability: The evidence continues to pile on. Let’s just skip right over the sources and the comments. They are numerous and more frequent. 25% of all homes for sale have lowered prices. New and existing home...

Now 39 years into this lumber gig, there is one thing I have more confidence in than anything else. It is the foundation of my entire lumber career and reason for my success forecasting lumber market timing. The repeating lumber market cycle. Some of it sloshes around, yet, in spite of all the...

Rationing On May 23, in its most active lumber futures day ever, the market traded $68 of volatility from $15 limit down to $30 limit up and back down $15 to unchanged. Why is that? Futures suspected what we Layman’s Lumber Guide members have known since mid-May. BC mills are not...

We lumber types have come to expect the unexpected. Hence, there is great value when we can identify, well in advance, what the next price manipulating phenomenon might be. 2018 has been a year of looking for an elusive lumber market top. Early in the year I went so far as to call 2018 a bear...

There are three fundamental lumber market components that will likely combine to make 2018 the most volatile year for prices on record.  LABOR: ICE gave notice last week that it intends to crack down on undocumented workers in the construction industry...on the jobsites. We already...